(二)請依序呈現 A1、A2、A3 的期望次數。（6 分）

(三)求出卡方值（只需正確至整數位） ，選擇參考以下適當的臨界值，作出 你的裁決並解釋結果。（12 分）

(四)性別與手機品牌喜好度之間有顯著相關嗎？若要求出兩變項的關係， 應採用那一種方法？（3 分）

(一)請問簡單直線迴歸分析中的「簡單」和「直線」各代表什麼意思？

(二)請寫出原始分數之迴歸公式及標準化迴歸公式。

(三)本迴歸模式是否有效（顯著）？你如何判斷？

(四)決定係數是多少？請以本題中的變項解釋決定係數的意義。

(五)「共線性」的意義是什麼？本次分析有沒有共線性的問題？

一、The Biden administration decided to withdraw troops from Afghanistan and end the 20-year US military presence there. Please analyze the background of the US troop withdrawal from Afghanistan and the development of the power balance in this region between the U.S., China, and Russia from the “balance of power” theory. (20 points)

二、In order to resolve the South China Sea dispute, China and the ten ASEAN countries signed the Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea (DOC) in 2002. This June (2021), the foreign ministers of China and the ASEAN countries held a special meeting in Chongqing to discuss how to implement this declaration to properly handle the South China Sea dispute. Please explore the changes in China’s perceptions of national interests and choices in the process of participating in the negotiation of this declaration from the perspective of neo-realism and neo-liberal institutionalism, and analyze them from the viewpoints of “relative gains” and “absolute gains.” (20 points)

三、The rivalry and confrontation between the United States and China are becoming increasingly heated. Some people believe that the current situation is quite similar to the pre-World War I period, and are therefore concerned about the possibility of the next great war. Please answer the following questions: (1) What were the causes of the First World War? Using your knowledge of modern diplomatic history, please cite at least three factors to explain them. (15 points) (2) What are the substantive issues that cause serious friction and confrontation between the U.S. and China? What are the potential flash points that may trigger a conflict between the two powers? Is there any similarity between the current situation and the situation before the First World War? Is it likely that the rivalry between the two powers results in another major war? Please try to use the ideas or theories of international relations to discuss the questions. (20 points)

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